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Residents of the Big Apple will discover who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will decide who governs and defends the nation's most populous metropolis at a time when the former president has vowed to deploy military troops to the city.

In this context, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democrats against each other. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by accusations of racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have major implications for how the party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the young progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has attracted global notice. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of ultra-rich donors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who defeated his opponent in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about two million city residents, has led Cuomo by double-digits in every poll taken in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who resigned as the state's leader in 2021 amid allegations of misconduct, has made it clear he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has trashed his opponent's objectives as unachievable, and in recent days laughed as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was widely condemned as bigoted after sharing an artificial intelligence video that included a series of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a particularly ugly conclusion to an election that could be critical to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its reaction to Trump's power moves, adopts in the near future.

National Implications

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have declined to support his campaign will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with voters' anger at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has generated an excitement within the party arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

However, if the former governor, who had been expected to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, complete a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement the party's existing approach of cautious, uninspiring resistance – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A NYC rejection of the progressive's progressive, positive message could persuade party leaders that the best plan is to remain in the political center – even as polls show the present version of the Democratic party is widely disliked nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in the city seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Polls show that his backers are much more excited about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. The candidate's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for New York and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the metropolis has attracted an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

However, Cuomo, 67, continues to fight. And with the stakes against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might stick, the independent has concentrated on attacking Mamdani personally. He has called Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and appeared on Fox Business for an discussion with a rightwing host, where Cuomo asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It reached a nadir recently, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

The line of attack echoes much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and threatened to do the same to New York, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to Trump in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to elect the independent into office, as other influential figures have urged Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When the assemblyman, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, launched his campaign for mayor in October 2024, not many had known him, and in truth, barely anyone even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who apparently held every edge. The classic political insider, he had wed a Kennedy and served in a Democratic presidency. He became the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his father, the former governor, left office from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was elected to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, the candidate has faced some challenges in recent days, after footage surfaced suggesting him implying the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your throat, it’s been laced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the recording, filmed at a DSA gathering in recent years. The progressive, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the country is committing genocide in Gaza, suggested he was criticizing joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, Mamdani seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's escalating attacks.

Mamdani addressed Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a family member advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could express their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our faith.”

Speaking to the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd